We welcome with great satisfaction the publication, for the third time, of an original scientific paper in the very prestigious Scientific Reports of Nature, entitled “Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in Northern Greece, 2020-2024”.
This paper is based on primary entomological and epidemiological data of Ecodevelopment in northern Greece and has resulted from our collaboration with the University of Patras, the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
This study introduces a new prediction tool for West Nile virus (WNV) risk at a municipality level, based on a previous epidemiological model directly influenced by climate. The performance of the model was evaluated at municipality level for the regions of Central Macedonia and Thessaly in Greece for the period 2020-2024. This model produces seasonal forecasts that are updated monthly throughout the mosquito breeding season (April-September). From the first forecast of the year, this model correctly predicted 71% of municipalities in Central Macedonia with human outbreak occurrence and correspondingly 60% in the case of Thessaly. These percentages increased by at least 20% after July, when monthly WNV circulation data on mosquitoes and humans were incorporated. This approach shows that coupling a climate-dependent epidemiological model at the local level with a model based on field data (incorporating abundance data of Culex pipiens, which is involved in WNV transmission, and of the pathogen’s circulation in it) can be a useful tool for designing control strategies to predict the risk of a WNV outbreak.
To read the full article click here.